Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.610292 24.584594 26.712973 29.188388 32.001390 35.114147 38.840660
2026-01-04 19.391356 22.076733 25.171128 29.041235 33.810451 39.574814 47.194735
2026-01-11 17.337067 20.455150 24.242516 29.270557 35.911991 44.600438 57.216399
2026-01-18 15.615138 18.937125 23.141860 28.999133 37.197310 48.686209 66.863583
2026-01-25 14.328504 17.775822 22.292070 28.848204 38.506089 52.920005 77.680545
2026-02-01 13.334767 16.867534 21.635624 28.814319 39.891534 57.428613 90.083703
2026-02-08 12.479392 16.048534 20.990440 28.671929 41.027936 61.684691 103.256800
2026-02-15 11.744357 15.322391 20.389159 28.492402 42.030707 65.851408 117.578161
2026-02-22 11.103602 14.672199 19.827777 28.288370 42.926889 69.960985 133.235996
2026-03-01 10.580215 14.148197 19.400947 28.235757 44.050467 74.701267 152.252600
2026-03-08 10.113721 13.671922 19.001497 28.172623 45.125168 79.553699 173.791120
2026-03-15 9.903931 13.562475 19.156970 29.055052 48.094086 89.132827 213.928242
2026-03-22 9.441304 13.047059 18.642242 28.740698 48.737990 93.812896 242.750827
2026-03-29 9.069680 12.651413 18.294281 28.693356 49.932221 100.195020 282.799099
2026-04-05 8.788107 12.379520 18.128816 28.962162 51.841893 109.006228 341.199951
2026-04-12 8.437963 11.977040 17.713562 28.713730 52.577046 114.914176 393.859005
2026-04-19 8.134490 11.632676 17.372866 28.573228 53.536278 121.812773 461.289683
2026-04-26 7.872373 11.341195 17.102992 28.543479 54.752635 129.956759 550.097422
2026-05-03 7.612521 11.039569 16.794737 28.404594 55.683586 137.576477 651.809160
2026-05-10 7.365345 10.746631 16.483065 28.228138 56.495456 145.161735 773.406661
2026-05-17 7.131279 10.464536 16.173568 28.027085 57.216117 152.776853 920.546247
2026-05-24 6.933086 10.234062 15.944170 27.975295 58.331882 162.453762 1131.370026
2026-05-31 6.745669 10.013410 15.719633 27.913044 59.415076 172.589579 1406.235154